The United States continues to deploy tariffs as a primary trade policy tool. The USTR issued a notice of proposed actions to implement new Section 301 tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent on all U.S. trading partners[reference:185]. The USTR is proposing 10% tariffs on 14 countries found either to have a forced labor prohibition in place or pledged to take action, and 12.5% tariffs on the remaining 46 countries[reference:186]. The US committed to imposing tariffs of up to 15% on most EU exports, including cars and many other industrial products[reference:187]. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are currently at 0%, but could rise to the ceiling if they are included in future US import investigations[reference:188]. The US has launched investigations under Section 301 against China and the European Union[reference:189]. On June 2, 2026, 50% tariffs were imposed on products made entirely or almost entirely of imported steel and aluminum. The Section 122 tariffs will expire on July 24, 2026, and the Trump Administration has been expected to use alternative authorities, such as Section 301 and Section 232, to continue the administration’s tariff regime[reference:190]. The EU faces a double challenge from US tariffs and Chinese restrictions[reference:191]. Under the US-EU trade agreement, EU exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff ceiling, while the EU committed to eliminating tariffs on all US industrial goods and opening tariff quotas on certain agricultural and seafood products[reference:192]. However, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum products have been increased to 50%. The EU adopted an entirely new customs code in March 2026, creating a new customs authority and central EU customs data hub to better control its borders[reference:193]. China has implemented electronic data verification for export documentation, with the General Administration of Customs and the State Taxation Administration announcing that from January 1, 2026, the ‘Certificate of Exported Goods with Tax Paid/Unrefunded’ will be subject to electronic data networking verification[reference:194]. China added new Japanese and US firms to its Export Control List[reference:195]. During June 2026, China expanded its export control lists against Japanese and US entities, restricted government procurement, and loosened fuel export quotas[reference:196]. China is expected to continue using instruments such as export controls on rare earths and semiconductor chips to exert trade pressure[reference:197]. The EU is likely to continue managing disputes through case-by-case price arrangements with individual Chinese companies[reference:198]. Other potential steps include broadening export and import quotas and tariffs for imports from China to protect Europe’s automotive, chemical, metal and green technology industries, and accelerating processes to prevent dumping and unfair subsidies[reference:199]. China has created a raft of new export controls and other measures enabling retaliation against foreign companies, individuals and governments[reference:200]. Geopolitical risk is now going to be priced into how businesses operate across the globe[reference:201]. The weaponization of trade and the impact of geopolitics on trade have become permanent features of the global business environment[reference:202]. Geopolitical risk is visible and regularly discussed, while the AI-related supply chain risk is subtler and, at most mid-sized manufacturers, almost entirely absent from contingency plans[reference:203]. **Unique Insight:** The most significant trade risk in 2026 is not any single policy change but the complexity and unpredictability of the interactions between US tariffs, EU countermeasures, and Chinese export controls. Organizations that treat these as separate compliance issues will be caught off guard when policy changes in one jurisdiction trigger cascading effects in others. The organizations best positioned to navigate this trilemma are those that have developed integrated trade policy monitoring capabilities that span all three jurisdictions and can model the combined impact of simultaneous policy changes on their supply chains. **Conclusion:** The 2026 trade policy trilemma demands a sophisticated approach to export/import compliance that integrates real-time regulatory intelligence, scenario modeling, and supply chain flexibility. Organizations that invest in trade compliance technology, develop cross-jurisdictional policy monitoring capabilities, and build flexibility into their sourcing strategies will navigate this complex environment successfully. The future of global trade compliance belongs to those who can anticipate policy interactions rather than merely react to individual changes.
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