The competition for critical minerals has become one of the defining features of global trade in 2026, with governments increasingly using trade policy to secure access to the resources powering the energy transition. According to UNCTAD analysis, as demand rises and supply risks grow, governments are increasingly using trade policy to secure critical minerals, build domestic extraction and processing capacity, and strengthen their position in global value chains[reference:118]. Since 2020, nearly 100 export-related measures have been introduced on critical minerals, including licensing requirements, export taxes, and export bans[reference:119]. This represents a significant escalation in the use of trade policy for strategic purposes.
The OECD Inventory of Export Restrictions on Critical Raw Materials 2026 provides a crucial evidence base on global export restrictions and their impacts[reference:120]. Between 2009 and 2024, export restrictions on critical raw materials increased fivefold, with the largest jumps occurring early in the period[reference:121]. Restrictions cover up to 70 percent of global exports of cobalt and manganese, 47 percent of graphite exports, and 45 percent of rare earth elements[reference:122]. By tightening supply and increasing price volatility, restrictions risk amplifying concentration and market distortions[reference:123]. The concentration of these resources in a limited number of countries creates significant supply chain vulnerabilities that companies must address proactively.
China’s dominance in the rare-earth supply chain is particularly significant. China accounts for roughly 70 percent of rare-earth mining, 90 percent of separation and processing, and 93 percent of magnet manufacturing[reference:124]. For magnet rare earths specifically, the International Energy Agency notes that China exported enough rare-earth magnets in 2024 to support components for millions of cars, industrial motors, or aircraft—or thousands of strategic military systems, data centers, or wind turbines[reference:125]. That concentration turns critical minerals into a macro issue, not just a supply-chain footnote[reference:126]. China’s export restrictions on rare earth materials in April 2025 contributed to production shutdowns at major manufacturers within weeks, demonstrating the real-world impact of this concentration[reference:127].
Resource nationalism has moved well beyond royalty disputes. In 2025 and 2026, it has come to include export bans, quota systems, processing mandates, and extraterritorial technology controls[reference:128]. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements are emerging as strategic chokepoints affecting energy security, industrial competitiveness, and geopolitical power[reference:129]. The Economic Survey 2026 highlights a growing trend of trade restrictions on critical mineral exports by source countries, underscoring how access to these resources is becoming central to the pace and affordability of the low-carbon transition[reference:130]. The organizations that will succeed in this environment are those that treat critical minerals as a strategic priority rather than a tactical procurement concern, developing diversified sourcing strategies, building strategic stockpiles, investing in recycling and alternative materials, and developing long-term relationships with suppliers in geopolitically stable regions.
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