Global trade enters 2026 under mounting pressure from slower growth, geopolitical fragmentation, accelerating digital and green transitions, and tighter national regulations.[reference:6] Together, these forces are reshaping trade flows, investment decisions, and global value chains, with the greatest risks and opportunities concentrated in developing economies.[reference:7] UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update identifies ten trends that will define how countries trade in 2026 and how trade policy choices could either reinforce fragmentation or support more resilient and inclusive growth.[reference:8]
Global growth is projected to remain subdued at about 2.6% in 2026, while growth in developing economies excluding China slows to around 4.2%.[reference:9] Major trading partners, including the United States, China, and Europe, are also losing momentum, weakening demand and tightening financial conditions.[reference:10][reference:11] For developing countries, slower growth limits investment in infrastructure and industrialization. Stronger regional trade and diversification will be critical to build resilience.[reference:12] The World Trade Organization projects global trade volume growth to ease to roughly 0.5 percent in 2026, down from about 2.4 percent in 2025, illustrating how world trade is navigating a difficult terrain.[reference:13]
Tariffs on the rise represent another critical trend. Global tariffs rose in 2025, driven largely by measures introduced by the US, with manufacturing most affected.[reference:14] Governments are expected to continue using tariffs in 2026 to pursue industrial and strategic objectives. Frequent policy shifts increase uncertainty, discourage investment, and disrupt supply chains.[reference:15] Nearly two-thirds of global trade takes place within value chains that are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, industrial policy, and new technologies. Firms are diversifying suppliers and relocating production closer to key markets to reduce risk.[reference:16]
The servicification of trade is another defining trend. Services exports now account for 27% of global trade and grew by about 9% in 2025, far outpacing goods.[reference:17] Services also dominate global intermediate inputs, underpinning manufacturing and primary sectors. Digitally deliverable services drive much of this growth.[reference:18] South-South trade has surged dramatically, with merchandise exports rising from about $0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025. Today, 57% of developing-country exports go to other developing markets, led by Asia’s regional value chains.[reference:19] Africa and Latin America are also strengthening South-South links. Deeper interregional trade can help offset weaker demand in advanced economies and boost resilience.[reference:20] The UNCTAD analysis makes clear that the center of gravity in global trade is shifting toward developing economies and services, and the organizations that recognize and adapt to these shifts will be the winners in the new era of international commerce.
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